CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 21/11 - 06Z MON 22/11 2004
ISSUED: 20/11 22:53Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the W Black Sea.

General thunderstorms are forecast across the S Adriatic and the Ionian Sea ... and over the W Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Long-wave upper trough over E Europe will make little eastward progress ... with downstream Atlantic short-wave trough progged to reach the British Isles late Monday night. SFC high pressure is expected to build over the central Mediterranean ... with NE European/NW Russian SFC low slowly filling and moving into the Barents Sea. Deepening SFC low associated with the Atlantic s/w trough is FCST to reach the North Sea towards early Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

......
Best chances for scattered TSTMS in the mixed polar air appear to exist over the Black Sea. Though models do not hint at activity over either the Adriatic/Ionian or the Aegean Sea ... slight chances for isolated TSTMS should to exist over this region as well based on latest SFLOC data ... Current thinking is that convection over the Adriatic and Ionian Sea will likely be very shallow ... with EL heights as low as about 700 hPa. Nonetheless ... scattered lightning flashes may occur. Also ... weak wave cyclone moving from the Ionian Sea across the Aegean Sea could support an isolated CG or two. A few waterspouts could occur over the warm water ... but convection should be too weak for organized severe TSTM threat.

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